Don't Let Success Go To Your Head AKA Crash and Burning MATH

Had a fantastic run on Sunday and early Monday. Played four tournaments. First was the Satellite into the $750 Guarentee. Played very well early, built a huge chip stack, and then just played super tight to make sure I didnt spew off chips and lose the seat. Sure enough, I got the $216 seat, with I cashed out for Tournament Dollars to use soon in a Bracelet Race tournament. I then jumped into the $3,000 Guarentee, which was limit hold'em. Despite having a crazy aggressive player to my left, I stayed at or above the average stack until the very end, when I finally got down to 5 players and became the short stack. My push into the very same maniac ended up in his favor, but I still cashed for $225. A two table Sit N Go for a $26 token was successful, if uneventful. Finally I played a $15 super satellite for the satellite into next weeks $750 Guarentee, and again started hot early and easily got the win.

Then came Monday at the Hoy Not much to tell, as 6 hands in I limp in with J10o, and end up flopping the nut straight. A raise ahead of me gets reraised by me, for about 1/3 our stacks. With two spades on the board I thought this would be enough to discourage and flush draws. Sure enough, the Ace of Spade coms on the turn. I know in my mind he likely has the flush, and probably with the King of Spades in his hand. He goes all in, and I talk myself out of my read, telling myself I have been running good, he is just trying to bluff me off the pot. I call, and sure enough he turns over the King and Queen of Spades, and I am drawing dead.

Lesson Learned.